Mark Cudmore Predicts 10-Year Yields to Hit 5% Floor, 30-Year Over 6% in 2027

Summary

The Bloomberg segment on CPI day features Mark Cudmore arguing the US has an ongoing inflation problem but today's print (expected soft) won't worsen it much. He claims the Treasury backdrop is negative regardless, forecasting significantly higher US yields—with 5% on the 10-year as a potential floor and 30-year through 6% next year—driven by strong global and US growth plus high fiscal and private spending. Cudmore then turns bullish on the UK, noting upgraded global GDP forecasts are warranted, positive high-frequency data, and World Bank/IMF figures showing the UK reclaiming fifth place in global GDP rankings ahead of India, countering stagnation narratives.

Sourcing relies on Cudmore's analysis, Bloomberg consensus mentions, recent World Bank/IMF data, and high-frequency indicators; no named outside experts or detailed models provided. The throughline is that resilient growth and spending will push yields higher and support UK outperformance despite conventional pessimism.

Editorial Assessment

The broadcast accurately captures current market levels (10-year ~4.69%, 30-year ~5.25%) and July CPI trends (3.5% headline, cooling but sticky). Cudmore's growth optimism aligns with recent positive data and IMF projections showing UK ahead of India in 2026 nominal GDP (~$4.26T vs $4.15T). However, his aggressive yield call is an outlier opinion; consensus forecasts point to lower or stable yields amid expected Fed easing, and many analysts highlight deficit sustainability risks from high spending rather than pure growth tailwinds. Viewers miss balanced counter-evidence: inflation remains above target with upside risks from tariffs or energy, and historical parallels where strong growth eventually prompted tighter policy. The framing leans bullish on fiscal expansion and markets, potentially skewing perception that higher yields are inevitable without discussing inversion risks, demand dynamics, or foreign buyer pullback. Overall, informative trader commentary but light on rigorous forecasting support.